This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane MarieEP132026

19.6°N 116.3°W · moving WNW at 8 kt · Advisory 12, 2026-09-04 03:00 UTC

Category 285 kt972 mb
24 h intensity change
+10 kt
past 24 h, best track
SHIPS-RII 30 kt / 24 h
19%
×2.2 climatology
SST along track
28 °C
SHIPS, 06:00 UTC run
Deep-layer shear
5 kt
850–200 mb

Intensity — past 72 h and official forecast

Maximum sustained wind (kt). Best track observed 6-hourly (solid); NHC official forecast (dashed). Vertical line marks the latest fix.

Rapid intensification probabilities

20 kt / 12 h14%×2.1 climo
25 kt / 24 h22%×1.7 climo
30 kt / 24 h19%×2.2 climo
35 kt / 24 h16%×2.5 climo
40 kt / 24 h13%×3.0 climo
45 kt / 36 h17%×2.6 climo
55 kt / 48 h0%×0.0 climo
65 kt / 72 h0%×0.0 climo

SHIPS rapid intensification index (RII): probability of each wind gain over each period, with its multiple of the basin climatological rate. Parsed from the 2026-09-04 06:00 UTC SHIPS run.

RI ingredients

Sea surface temperature28.0 °Cfavorable

Warm water is the storm’s fuel — RI is rare below about 26.5 °C, and the most explosive cases ride water of 29 °C or more.

Ocean heat content9 kJ/cm²unfavorable

Heat content measures how deep the warm water goes — a deep warm layer keeps the storm’s own mixing from stirring up cold water that would cut off its fuel.

Deep-layer wind shear5 kthighly favorable

Shear tilts and ventilates the developing core — the calmer the winds aloft, the easier it is for the warm core to stack up vertically and deepen.

Mid-level humidity68%favorable

A moist middle atmosphere protects the core — dry air pulled in from outside evaporates cloud, cools the updrafts, and stalls intensification.

Values from the 2026-09-04 06:00 UTC SHIPS run, along the forecast track. Band edges are approximate guides drawn from rapid-intensification studies, not sharp physical cutoffs — storms occasionally intensify through “unfavorable” environments, and plenty of favorable setups never produce RI. Planned additions: ocean salinity (barrier layers) and inner-core structure.