This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Final data: 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC — Vance is no longer being actively tracked (Disturbance). See the RI climatology or the marine heatwave map for current activity.

Disturbance Vance EP222026

Peak 100 kt (Category 3) · Recorded 2026-10-18 18:00 UTC – 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC · 34 cycles archived

SHIPS coverage: 33 of 34 tropical or subtropical 6-hourly fixes (97%)

Category 3100 kt peakRI: +40 kt in 24 h beginning 10/23 00Z

Final position 20.7°N 107.7°W · last moving NNE at 7 kt · final pressure 1008 mb · final advisory 35, 2026-10-30 03:00 UTC

Rapid intensification

Based on preliminary operational best-track data. NHC's post-season reanalysis can revise a storm's wind history — in marginal cases, this could change whether the storm still meets the RI threshold.

10°N20°N30°N120°W100°W80°WRapid intensification2026-10-18 18:00 UTC · 10.6°N 89.2°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 00:00 UTC · 10.7°N 90.3°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 06:00 UTC · 10.7°N 91.2°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 12:00 UTC · 10.7°N 92.1°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 18:00 UTC · 10.6°N 93.0°W · 20 kt2026-10-20 00:00 UTC · 10.3°N 94.0°W · 20 kt2026-10-20 06:00 UTC · 10.0°N 94.8°W · 25 kt2026-10-20 12:00 UTC · 10.0°N 95.6°W · 25 kt2026-10-20 18:00 UTC · 9.8°N 96.2°W · 25 kt2026-10-21 00:00 UTC · 9.7°N 96.9°W · 25 kt2026-10-21 06:00 UTC · 9.6°N 97.8°W · 25 kt2026-10-21 12:00 UTC · 9.5°N 98.7°W · 30 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 40%2026-10-21 18:00 UTC · 9.4°N 99.5°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 46%2026-10-22 00:00 UTC · 9.5°N 100.0°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 39%2026-10-22 06:00 UTC · 9.6°N 100.5°W · 40 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 27%2026-10-22 12:00 UTC · 9.7°N 100.9°W · 45 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 48%2026-10-22 18:00 UTC · 9.8°N 101.3°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 68%2026-10-23 00:00 UTC · 10.4°N 101.6°W · 60 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 67%2026-10-23 06:00 UTC · 10.6°N 101.9°W · 70 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 46%2026-10-23 12:00 UTC · 10.6°N 102.1°W · 75 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 21%2026-10-23 18:00 UTC · 11.0°N 102.2°W · 90 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 16%2026-10-24 00:00 UTC · 11.6°N 102.6°W · 100 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-24 06:00 UTC · 12.0°N 102.9°W · 95 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-24 12:00 UTC · 12.5°N 103.1°W · 90 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-24 18:00 UTC · 13.0°N 103.2°W · 85 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 00:00 UTC · 13.5°N 103.3°W · 80 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 06:00 UTC · 13.7°N 103.5°W · 75 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 12:00 UTC · 13.9°N 103.6°W · 65 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 18:00 UTC · 14.6°N 104.0°W · 60 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-26 00:00 UTC · 14.9°N 104.5°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-26 06:00 UTC · 15.2°N 104.9°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-26 12:00 UTC · 15.3°N 105.3°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-26 18:00 UTC · 15.3°N 105.9°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-27 00:00 UTC · 15.3°N 106.2°W · 45 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-27 06:00 UTC · 15.7°N 106.7°W · 45 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-27 12:00 UTC · 16.1°N 107.3°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-27 18:00 UTC · 16.6°N 108.0°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-28 00:00 UTC · 16.9°N 108.4°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-28 06:00 UTC · 18.0°N 108.7°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-28 12:00 UTC · 18.8°N 109.2°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-28 18:00 UTC · 19.6°N 109.2°W · 30 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-29 00:00 UTC · 20.5°N 108.5°W · 30 kt2026-10-29 06:00 UTC · 20.6°N 108.5°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-29 12:00 UTC · 21.4°N 108.7°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-29 18:00 UTC · 22.0°N 108.6°W · 30 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-30 00:00 UTC · 22.6°N 107.8°W · 25 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%
Observed trackRapid intensification
Position from ATCF best track. Hover a point for time, position, wind, and SHIPS RI probability when available.

SHIPS data captured 2026-10-21 12:00 UTC – 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC · Peak intensity 100 kt · 34 cycles archived

hover the chart to inspect a moment
Environmental history across Vance's recorded life. Shaded band(s) mark the same rapid-intensification episode(s) shown in the RI badge above (identical computation, ≥30 kt/24 h merged episodes from best track). Shaded span covers all qualifying 24 h windows, so it can extend past the intensity peak. The SHIPS-RII lane is the forecast probability issued at each cycle, not an observed value.Hover to inspect any moment across every lane at once.

Satellite intensity estimates

Best-track windDvorak, TAFB (NHC)ADT (UW-CIMSS)SATCON (UW-CIMSS)Maximum wind (kt) estimated from satellite imagery — estimates, not observations, and not the official intensity. ADT and SATCON: UW-CIMSS, delivered through NHC’s ATCF fix files. Subjective Dvorak from the agency named on each fix.