This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.
⚠ Invest — pre-genesis system near Central and Western East Pacific; most invests do not develop. NHC gives this area a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within 7 days (outlook valid 2026-07-17 17:50 UTC). The figures below describe how favorable the environment is for development, not a rapid-intensification forecast for a storm that doesn't exist yet.
Disturbance Central and Western East PacificEP972026
10.9°N 106.2°W · moving WNW at 10 kt · Best track through 2026-07-17 18:00 UTC
Intensity — past 72 h and official forecast
Rapid intensification probabilities
This system doesn't exist yet — these are conditional probabilities: if a tropical cyclone forms here, this is what SHIPS estimates its rapid-intensification odds would be. They are not a forecast that formation will happen.
No RI signal this run — the 2026-07-17 18:00 UTC SHIPS run puts every RI threshold at 0%.
SHIPS rapid intensification index (RII): probability of each wind gain over each period, with its multiple of the basin climatological rate. Parsed from the 2026-07-17 18:00 UTC SHIPS run.
RI ingredients
Warm water is the storm’s fuel — RI is rare below about 26.5 °C, and the most explosive cases ride water of 29 °C or more.
Heat content measures how deep the warm water goes — a deep warm layer keeps the storm’s own mixing from stirring up cold water that would cut off its fuel.
Shear tilts and ventilates the developing core — the calmer the winds aloft, the easier it is for the warm core to stack up vertically and deepen.
A moist middle atmosphere protects the core — dry air pulled in from outside evaporates cloud, cools the updrafts, and stalls intensification.
Values from the 2026-07-17 18:00 UTC SHIPS run, along the forecast track. Band edges are approximate guides drawn from rapid-intensification studies, not sharp physical cutoffs — storms occasionally intensify through “unfavorable” environments, and plenty of favorable setups never produce RI. Planned additions: ocean salinity (barrier layers) and inner-core structure.